Out-Predicting the Consensus (Part 2): Occam’s CPI Forecast

May 2023 CPI came in at a 4.0% increase year on year. Occam’s estimate for CPI was 4.1%, which was better than the consensus estimate of 4.2%.  May 2023 Core CPI came in at 5.3%. Occam’s estimate for Core CPI was 5.3% better than consensus of 5.2%. Occam’s powerful ML model continues to outperform the consensus forecast on important macroeconomic releases. Occam has been correctly forecasting that inflation would be coming down at a record pace.

June 14, 2023
CPI Forecast vs Actual
  • Occam’s May 2023 CPI forecast was 4.1%, which came in close to the reported number of 4.0%, and better than the consensus estimate of 4.2%.
Core CPI Forecast vs Actual
  • Occam’s May 2023 Core CPI forecast was 5.3%, which was in line with the reported number of 5.3%, and better than the consensus estimate of 5.2%.

Source: Analysis based on occam™ proprietary AI-enhanced research platform with various data sources, including a wide range of questions asked to over 1000 respondents per day with over three years of history. Information is census-balanced and uses occam’s™ proprietary AI algorithm that ensures minimal sampling bias (<1%). Contact us for more info.

 

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