Now(cast) or Later?
- Inflation expectations, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index are reported only monthly, so identifying meaningful trends and turning points over time can be challenging. The low frequency and variability of these releases limit their effectiveness in capturing timely shifts in sentiment. These surveys are based on relatively small sample sizes, and their results can be influenced by the timing of data collection—whether by time of day, day of the week, or point in the month. Additionally, there is often a considerable lag between when the data are collected and when it is published, which can result in insights that are outdated by the time they are released.
- This week, the Conference Board reported a notable uptick in Consumer Confidence for the first half of May. In contrast to traditional monthly indicators, Occam Nowcast measures consumer sentiment and key behavioral signals daily, enabling earlier detection of trend shifts and inflection points well ahead of consensus sources.
- Occam Nowcast captures responses from over 500 individuals each day. This higher-frequency approach allowed Occam to detect a bottoming in sentiment on April 24, followed by a marked and sustained rebound—well before the latest official release.
- Subscribe today to stay ahead of the curve- or wait 30 days for the traditional monthly updates.
