Generational Differences in the Labor Markets
- In recent weeks, the labor market has delivered a series of conflicting signals. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported an unexpected upside surprise in job openings in May, while just a day later, ADP indicated that the private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June. Adding to the volatility, U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) subsequently rose by 147,000 in June—significantly outperforming consensus expectations of 110,000.
- Occam monitors the labor market in real time using a census-balanced methodology that ensures a representative view across all key demographics. This approach mitigates bias that arises from over- or under-representation of factors such as age, ethnicity, region, or political affiliation. The result is a more accurate and predictive perspective on labor market dynamics. Occam’s June NFP estimates of 145k was remarkably close to the actual reported figure of 147k.
- As highlighted in the table below, perceptions of the labor market vary significantly by age group. Gen Z respondents are three times as likely to say jobs are “hard to get” than “plentiful”. In contrast, nearly twice as many Baby Boomers report the opposite—that jobs are “plentiful” rather than “hard to get.” Overall, adults 45 and older express more optimism about the job market than younger cohorts. The generational divergence illustrates the importance of using broad and balanced samples when interpreting labor market sentiment.
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